On the Table

Economic Forecast Slips

Weaker-than-expected employment has prompted the University of New Mexico economic forecasting service called FOR-UNM to project an even weaker economy for 2009 and a longer period until lost jobs are recovered. Total employment is now estimated to have fallen from fall 2008 and fall 2009 by about 41,000 jobs, compared with 27,000 jobs in the previous forecast. Almost all the job losses were in the private sector for a drop of about 6 percent. The biggest drop was in construction, where the number of jobs dropped about 17 percent, but mining and manufacturing, both with about 14 percent declines, were also hit hard. Total employment is forecast to decline by 2.4 percent in FY10, with job growth of about 1.8 percent starting in FY11. Total employment is not forecast to reach the FY08 level again until FY13.

General Fund Revenue Dives

General fund revenue was down 26 percent for the first two months of FY10 compared with the same period in FY09. About $190 million of the nearly $250 million difference was due to lower revenue from oil and natural gas taxes and revenues. Without those revenues, total revenue was down 8.7 percent. Declines in gross receipts and corporate income taxes both contributed to the overall decline. Total general fund revenue is forecast to be down almost 10 percent for all of FY10.

Ozone Report Prompts Delay

The Environment Department has delayed a plan to implement stricter targets for emissions in the Four Corners region after summer ozone levels were found to be better than expected. The department also canceled a hearing before the Environmental Improvement Board on greenhouse gas emission reporting requirements set to go into effect in 2010. Instead, the state agency plans to adopt methodology developed by the federal Environmental Protection Agency, an effort to promote uniform standards nationally.

PERA Facing “Crisis”

An unexpected increase in liabilities has weakened the health of the Public Employee Retirement Association fund, with the fund’s actuaries declaring the plans for judicial and magistrate retirees at a “crisis point.” The actuaries say the plans for those two groups will be insolvent without legislative action. The funding period for the total fund, the estimated time to pay off unfunded liabilities, grew from 13 years to 111 years in 2009, substantially longer than the industry standard of 30 years.

Attendance Up, Money Down

Attendance at this year’s State Fair increased by 1.5 percent but paid attendance was down 20 percent. Overall total revenue for the 2009 fair was down 8 percent.

Transitions

Kelly Kuenstler, who served as the interim Administrative Office of the District Attorneys director, was appointed full-time director.

Linda Paul, superintendent of Aztec Schools for 13 years, will lead the new School Leadership Academy attached to the University of New Mexico and funded with a 2009 special appropriation of $200 thousand.